Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 29?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
9 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 26° to 36°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 24° against the SLC observations, with 5.1 mm of precipitation — showers.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-20 | 26° | 26° | 35° | — | 36° | — | — | 26–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-21 | 29° | 29° | 34° | 31° | 34° | — | — | 29–34° |
| 7d · 2026-08-22 | 24° | 29° | 33° | 32° | 35° | 30° | — | 24–35° |
| 6d · 2026-08-23 | 22° | 25° | 32° | 28° | 32° | 25° | 26° | 22–32° |
| 5d · 2026-08-24 | 22° | 26° | 30° | 24° | 27° | 25° | 29° | 22–30° |
| 4d · 2026-08-25 | 23° | 23° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 24° | 26° | 23–27° |
| 3d · 2026-08-26 | 22° | 25° | 24° | 29° | 29° | 24° | 24° | 22–29° |
| 2d · 2026-08-27 | 22° | 24° | 23° | 25° | 29° | 23° | 25° | 22–29° |
| 1d · 2026-08-28 | 23° | 25° | 22° | 20° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 20–26° |
| actual | 24° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.