Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Aug 14?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 27° to 41°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 25° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.8 mm of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | 33° | 30° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 30–35° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 29° | 27° | 38° | — | 41° | — | — | 27–41° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 30° | 32° | 30° | — | 37° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 29° | 31° | 30° | — | 34° | — | — | 29–34° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 30° | 30° | 34° | — | 38° | — | — | 30–38° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 20° | 23° | 33° | — | 33° | — | — | 20–33° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 22° | 28° | 32° | 26° | 36° | — | — | 22–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 27° | 26° | 35° | 27° | 37° | — | — | 26–37° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 22° | 25° | 32° | 28° | 33° | 31° | — | 22–33° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 22° | 22° | 29° | 21° | 30° | 30° | 32° | 21–32° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 25° | 27° | 27° | 27° | 30° | 27° | 26° | 25–30° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 25° | 27° | 27° | 28° | 30° | 27° | 27° | 25–30° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 25° | 27° | 26° | 29° | 30° | 26° | 28° | 25–30° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 24° | 27° | 23° | 28° | 29° | 26° | 26° | 23–29° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 24° | 26° | 24° | 26° | 29° | 25° | 27° | 24–29° |
| actual | 25° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.