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Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 10?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 34° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 34–37; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-26 34° 35° — — 37° — — 34–37°
14d · 2026-07-27 34° 34° 37° — 34° — — 34–37°
13d · 2026-07-28 30° 36° 36° — 36° — — 30–36°
12d · 2026-07-29 37° 36° 39° — 39° — — 36–39°
11d · 2026-07-30 33° 33° 39° — 38° — — 33–39°
10d · 2026-07-31 30° 34° 41° — 36° — — 30–41°
9d · 2026-08-01 36° 35° 36° 36° 40° — — 35–40°
8d · 2026-08-02 33° 35° 35° 35° 38° — — 33–38°
7d · 2026-08-03 33° 35° 35° 34° 40° 37° — 33–40°
6d · 2026-08-04 33° 36° 35° 36° 40° 37° 37° 33–40°
5d · 2026-08-05 33° 37° 37° 36° 39° 37° 35° 33–39°
4d · 2026-08-06 33° 35° 37° 36° 38° 37° 36° 33–38°
3d · 2026-08-07 34° 35° 36° 38° 38° 37° 36° 34–38°
2d · 2026-08-08 34° 36° 35° 36° 37° 37° 36° 34–37°
1d · 2026-08-09 34° 36° 36° 37° 37° 36° 36° 34–37°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.