The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Aug 5?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 34° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 34–41; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-21 — 36° — — 38° — — 36–38°
14d · 2026-07-22 34° 37° 41° — 39° — — 34–41°
13d · 2026-07-23 34° 33° 39° — 40° — — 33–40°
12d · 2026-07-24 34° 38° 39° — 35° — — 34–39°
11d · 2026-07-25 36° 38° 40° — 39° — — 36–40°
10d · 2026-07-26 36° 39° 40° — 39° — — 36–40°
9d · 2026-07-27 36° 38° 39° 37° 32° — — 32–39°
8d · 2026-07-28 38° 34° 41° 37° 36° — — 34–41°
7d · 2026-07-29 34° 33° 38° 34° 35° — — 33–38°
6d · 2026-07-30 34° 31° 39° 33° 34° 37° 37° 31–39°
5d · 2026-07-31 32° 33° 37° 31° 35° 36° 38° 31–38°
4d · 2026-08-01 33° 31° 36° 32° 36° 34° 34° 31–36°
3d · 2026-08-02 34° 32° 35° 32° 34° 33° 33° 32–35°
2d · 2026-08-03 34° 33° 34° 33° 36° 33° 34° 33–36°
1d · 2026-08-04 34° 33° 35° 33° 35° 33° 33° 33–35°
0d · 2026-08-05 34° 33° 34° 33° 35° 33° 33° 33–35°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.