The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 2?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 37° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ICON ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 37–38; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-18 — 38° — — 38° — — 38–38°
14d · 2026-07-19 37° 37° 37° — 38° — — 37–38°
13d · 2026-07-20 33° 34° 39° — 38° — — 33–39°
12d · 2026-07-21 38° 37° 39° — 38° — — 37–39°
11d · 2026-07-22 38° 32° 41° — 39° — — 32–41°
10d · 2026-07-23 39° 36° 41° — 39° — — 36–41°
9d · 2026-07-24 37° 37° 40° 36° 41° — — 36–41°
8d · 2026-07-25 35° 37° 40° 35° 39° — — 35–40°
7d · 2026-07-26 37° 38° 38° 36° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-07-27 37° 38° 39° 36° 41° 38° 40° 36–41°
5d · 2026-07-28 37° 37° 38° 36° 40° 36° 38° 36–40°
4d · 2026-07-29 38° 38° 38° 36° 40° 37° 39° 36–40°
3d · 2026-07-30 37° 37° 39° 36° 40° 38° 38° 36–40°
2d · 2026-07-31 37° 37° 39° 36° 39° 37° 38° 36–39°
1d · 2026-08-01 38° 37° 38° 36° 39° 37° 38° 36–39°
0d · 2026-08-02 37° 37° 36° 36° 39° 36° 37° 36–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.