The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 1?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 33° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 40° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-17 — 37° — — 42° — — 37–42°
14d · 2026-07-18 33° 37° 34° — 36° — — 33–37°
13d · 2026-07-19 34° 38° 36° — 39° — — 34–39°
12d · 2026-07-20 34° 35° 40° — 34° — — 34–40°
11d · 2026-07-21 37° 38° 38° — 39° — — 37–39°
10d · 2026-07-22 37° 38° 41° — 36° — — 36–41°
9d · 2026-07-23 38° 36° 40° 38° 39° — — 36–40°
8d · 2026-07-24 38° 36° 42° 37° 40° — — 36–42°
7d · 2026-07-25 39° 39° 42° 37° 41° — — 37–42°
6d · 2026-07-26 40° 40° 42° 38° 42° 41° 40° 38–42°
5d · 2026-07-27 39° 40° 41° 37° 42° 40° 41° 37–42°
4d · 2026-07-28 39° 39° 41° 37° 41° 39° 40° 37–41°
3d · 2026-07-29 39° 39° 41° 39° 41° 39° 41° 39–41°
2d · 2026-07-30 39° 39° 41° 38° 41° 39° 40° 38–41°
1d · 2026-07-31 39° 39° 41° 38° 42° 38° 39° 38–42°
0d · 2026-08-01 39° 39° 40° 38° 41° 38° 39° 38–41°
actual 40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.