The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Jul 31?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 35° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 35–42; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-07-17 36° 36° 35° — 42° — — 35–42°
13d · 2026-07-18 30° 38° 37° — 39° — — 30–39°
12d · 2026-07-19 33° 37° 36° — 38° — — 33–38°
11d · 2026-07-20 34° 36° 41° — 36° — — 34–41°
10d · 2026-07-21 36° 38° 37° — 41° — — 36–41°
9d · 2026-07-22 37° 39° 40° 38° 34° — — 34–40°
8d · 2026-07-23 38° 37° 40° 37° 38° — — 37–40°
7d · 2026-07-24 38° 36° 41° 38° 40° — — 36–41°
6d · 2026-07-25 39° 39° 41° 36° 40° 36° 40° 36–41°
5d · 2026-07-26 39° 39° 41° 37° 40° 39° 40° 37–41°
4d · 2026-07-27 39° 38° 39° 37° 41° 37° 39° 37–41°
3d · 2026-07-28 38° 38° 40° 37° 39° 37° 39° 37–40°
2d · 2026-07-29 38° 37° 40° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-07-30 37° 37° 39° 37° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-07-31 37° 38° 39° 37° 40° 37° 38° 37–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.