The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Jul 30?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

13 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 34° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

13 days out the models said 34–42; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
13d · 2026-07-17 35° 35° 34° — 42° — — 34–42°
12d · 2026-07-18 32° 38° 40° — 41° — — 32–41°
11d · 2026-07-19 32° 36° 35° — 43° — — 32–43°
10d · 2026-07-20 33° 37° 39° — 41° — — 33–41°
9d · 2026-07-21 35° 37° 36° 36° 38° — — 35–38°
8d · 2026-07-22 35° 38° 38° 37° 40° — — 35–40°
7d · 2026-07-23 37° 36° 38° 36° 38° — — 36–38°
6d · 2026-07-24 38° 36° 40° 36° 37° 39° 39° 36–40°
5d · 2026-07-25 38° 38° 39° 36° 40° 38° 39° 36–40°
4d · 2026-07-26 36° 37° 39° 36° 38° 38° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-07-27 36° 36° 38° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–38°
2d · 2026-07-28 35° 36° 37° 35° 37° 36° 37° 35–37°
1d · 2026-07-29 35° 35° 37° 35° 37° 36° 37° 35–37°
0d · 2026-07-30 34° 34° 35° 35° 37° 35° 35° 34–37°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.