The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Jul 27?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

10 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 33° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

10 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-07-17 34° 35° 33° — 39° — — 33–39°
9d · 2026-07-18 35° 35° 35° 37° 38° — — 35–38°
8d · 2026-07-19 37° 36° 38° 37° 40° — — 36–40°
7d · 2026-07-20 37° 38° 36° 38° 39° — — 36–39°
6d · 2026-07-21 38° 38° 40° 37° 39° 37° 36° 36–40°
5d · 2026-07-22 36° 38° 40° 36° 38° 39° 34° 34–40°
4d · 2026-07-23 35° 37° 39° 36° 40° 38° 37° 35–40°
3d · 2026-07-24 35° 36° 39° 37° 39° 36° 38° 35–39°
2d · 2026-07-25 35° 37° 38° 38° 38° 38° 37° 35–38°
1d · 2026-07-26 34° 35° 37° 38° 38° 37° 36° 34–38°
0d · 2026-07-27 33° 36° 35° 38° 37° 36° 36° 33–38°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.