The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Jul 26?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 5 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 30° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

9 days out the models said 30–39; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-17 30° 33° 31° 35° 39° — — 30–39°
8d · 2026-07-18 35° 31° 31° 36° 37° — — 31–37°
7d · 2026-07-19 38° 34° 36° 36° 39° — — 34–39°
6d · 2026-07-20 37° 38° 36° 38° 40° 38° 35° 35–40°
5d · 2026-07-21 37° 38° 39° 37° 39° 40° 38° 37–40°
4d · 2026-07-22 37° 39° 40° 36° 41° 39° 38° 36–41°
3d · 2026-07-23 37° 39° 38° 38° 40° 40° 38° 37–40°
2d · 2026-07-24 37° 38° 39° 39° 40° 40° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-07-25 38° 38° 39° 39° 40° 39° 38° 38–40°
0d · 2026-07-26 38° 37° 39° 39° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.