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Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Jul 25?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

8 days out, 5 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Jul 25 high anywhere from 27° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.

8 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Jul 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-07-17 35° 33° 27° 33° 33° — — 27–35°
7d · 2026-07-18 36° 32° 31° 36° 39° 37° — 31–39°
6d · 2026-07-19 36° 35° 35° 37° 38° 36° 35° 35–38°
5d · 2026-07-20 36° 37° 38° 36° 41° 39° 36° 36–41°
4d · 2026-07-21 36° 38° 38° 36° 40° 37° 37° 36–40°
3d · 2026-07-22 36° 38° 38° 38° 40° 37° 37° 36–40°
2d · 2026-07-23 37° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
1d · 2026-07-24 37° 37° 37° 39° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.