Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Jul 24?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 5 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 28° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 37° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

7 days out the models said 28–39; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
7d · 2026-07-17	34°	36°	28°	35°	39°	—	—	28–39°
6d · 2026-07-18	36°	35°	35°	35°	39°	37°	33°	33–39°
5d · 2026-07-19	36°	36°	35°	36°	38°	36°	33°	33–38°
4d · 2026-07-20	36°	36°	38°	36°	40°	36°	35°	35–40°
3d · 2026-07-21	36°	36°	39°	37°	39°	37°	37°	36–39°
2d · 2026-07-22	36°	37°	39°	37°	40°	38°	37°	36–40°
1d · 2026-07-23	36°	37°	38°	38°	39°	38°	36°	36–39°
0d · 2026-07-24	36°	37°	37°	38°	38°	38°	37°	36–38°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.