The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Jul 24?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 6 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 28° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 37° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 2° warm.

7 days out the models said 28–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-07-17 36° 35° 28° 35° 38° 33° — 28–38°
6d · 2026-07-18 35° 34° 34° 35° 39° 36° 33° 33–39°
5d · 2026-07-19 36° 36° 35° 36° 38° 36° 33° 33–38°
4d · 2026-07-20 36° 36° 38° 36° 40° 37° 35° 35–40°
3d · 2026-07-21 36° 37° 39° 37° 39° 37° 37° 36–39°
2d · 2026-07-22 36° 37° 38° 37° 40° 38° 37° 36–40°
1d · 2026-07-23 36° 36° 38° 38° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.