The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Jul 22?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Jul 22 high anywhere from 26° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 3.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

5 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-07-17 28° 30° 33° 30° 33° 26° 37° 26–37°
4d · 2026-07-18 28° 30° 34° 28° 34° 28° 34° 28–34°
3d · 2026-07-19 29° 32° 33° 32° 33° 27° 32° 27–33°
2d · 2026-07-20 29° 30° 34° 33° 33° 29° 34° 29–34°
1d · 2026-07-21 29° 29° 33° 34° 33° 29° 34° 29–34°
0d · 2026-07-22 28° 30° 31° 31° 32° 31° 30° 28–32°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.