Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Jul 21?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 32° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.

4 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 37. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-07-17	32°	33°	36°	33°	36°	34°	36°	32–36°
3d · 2026-07-18	32°	34°	36°	36°	37°	33°	37°	32–37°
2d · 2026-07-19	33°	34°	35°	32°	36°	33°	37°	32–37°
1d · 2026-07-20	34°	34°	36°	36°	37°	36°	37°	34–37°
0d · 2026-07-21	35°	34°	38°	36°	37°	36°	36°	34–38°
actual								37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.