The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Jul 20?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-07-17 36° 36° 37° 37° 39° 36° 36° 36–39°
2d · 2026-07-18 36° 36° 37° 37° 39° 36° 38° 36–39°
1d · 2026-07-19 36° 36° 37° 37° 39° 37° 37° 36–39°
0d · 2026-07-20 37° 36° 39° 37° 40° 38° 38° 36–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.