Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Jul 20?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 36° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 3° cool.

3 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-17	36°	36°	38°	36°	39°	36°	36°	36–39°
2d · 2026-07-18	36°	35°	37°	37°	39°	36°	38°	35–39°
1d · 2026-07-19	36°	36°	37°	37°	39°	37°	37°	36–39°
actual								39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.