How much rain the weather models forecast in Phoenix
Phoenix, Sky Harbor station · each model's rain in millimeters · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-29T12:50 UTC
Rain, day by day
boxes are the range, ticks are the models
How the rain is built
Each day's box runs from the driest model to the wettest, and each tick is one model's amount for that day. A box over one tick is one model forecasting rain the others do not. There is no median: when four models forecast no rain and one forecasts an inch, the median is zero, which hides the one wet model.
A model that forecasts no rain counts as a dry forecast, not a missing one: Models is every model with a forecast for that day, and Wet is how many of them forecast at least 0.3 mm. Rain chance is the range across the models that publish one, which is not the same set: the AI models publish no chance, and some models publish a chance further out than their amounts reach. NBM and every other blend are left out, as they are everywhere on this page.
Each total counts only models with a forecast for every one of its days, so a model whose run ends sooner is not drawn drier than it forecast. The models left out are named under the totals; the longer the window, the more of them there are.
The wettest day is Sun Nov 1, where 7 of 7 models forecast rain in Phoenix: ECMWF wettest at 62.9 mm, the driest at 17.6 mm.
How much rain, next 1 day
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Thu Oct 29, 0.5 mm between the wettest and the driest · 6 models forecast no rain.
- GFS 0.5
- AIFS 0.0
- AIGFS 0.0
- ECMWF 0.0
- GEM 0.0
- ICON 0.0
- UKMO 0.0
How much rain, next 2 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Fri Oct 30, 30.7 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- GFS 34.1
- UKMO 28.4
- ECMWF 23.8
- AIFS 22.0
- AIGFS 21.5
- ICON 11.3
- GEM 3.4
How much rain, next 3 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Sat Oct 31, 20.9 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- GFS 35.2
- UKMO 30.8
- AIGFS 29.5
- AIFS 26.1
- ECMWF 24.9
- ICON 16.9
- GEM 14.3
How much rain, next 4 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Sun Nov 1, 42.9 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- ECMWF 87.8
- AIFS 72.0
- UKMO 64.1
- AIGFS 63.1
- ICON 60.3
- GFS 52.8
- GEM 44.9
How much rain, next 5 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Mon Nov 2, 50.4 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- ECMWF 98.3
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.6
- UKMO 67.4
- ICON 61.2
- GFS 52.8
- GEM 47.9
How much rain, next 6 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Tue Nov 3, 50.4 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- ECMWF 98.3
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.6
- UKMO 67.4
- ICON 61.2
- GFS 52.8
- GEM 47.9
How much rain, next 7 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Wed Nov 4, 50.4 mm between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: UKMO.
- ECMWF 98.3
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.8
- ICON 61.2
- GFS 52.8
- GEM 47.9
How much rain, next 8 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Thu Nov 5, 50.4 mm between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: ICON, UKMO.
- ECMWF 98.3
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.8
- GFS 52.8
- GEM 47.9
How much rain, next 9 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Fri Nov 6, 53.8 mm between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: ICON, UKMO.
- ECMWF 101.7
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.8
- GFS 53.7
- GEM 47.9
How much rain, next 10 days
Each model's own total, Thu Oct 29 to Sat Nov 7, 51.8 mm between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: GEM, ICON, UKMO.
- ECMWF 105.5
- AIFS 78.9
- AIGFS 69.8
- GFS 53.7
| Day | Models | Wet | Range (mm) | Wettest | Rain chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 1 | 0.0 to 0.5 | GFS 0.5 | 0% to 10% 6 models |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 7 | 3.4 to 33.6 | GFS 33.6 | 85% to 100% 6 models |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 to 10.9 | GEM 10.9 | 45% to 96% 6 models |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 7 | 17.6 to 62.9 | ECMWF 62.9 | 78% to 99% 6 models |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 6 | 0.0 to 10.5 | ECMWF 10.5 | 36% to 77% 6 models |
| Tue Nov 3 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 0% to 5% 6 models |
| Wed Nov 4 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | — | 0% to 8% 6 models |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 0% to 5% 5 models |
| Fri Nov 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.0 to 3.4 | ECMWF 3.4 | 3% to 16% 5 models |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 to 3.8 | ECMWF 3.8 | 0% to 26% 5 models |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | — | 0% to 16% 4 models |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | AIFS 3.1 | 0% to 14% 4 models |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 to 0.6 | AIFS 0.6 | 0% to 14% 4 models |
| Wed Nov 11 | 4 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 3% to 10% 4 models |
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