How much rain the weather models forecast in Phoenix
Phoenix, Sky Harbor station · each model's rain in millimetres · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-20T12:50 UTC
Rain, day by day
boxes are the range, ticks are the models
How the rain is built
Each day's box runs from the driest model to the wettest, and each tick is one model's amount for that day. A box over one tick is one model forecasting rain the others do not. There is deliberately no median: when four models say nothing and one says an inch, the middle is a number no model forecast.
A model that forecasts no rain counts as a dry forecast, not a missing one: Models is every model with a forecast for that day, and Wet is how many of them forecast at least 0.3 mm. Rain chance is the range across the models that publish one, which is not the same set: the AI models publish no chance, and some models publish a chance further out than their amounts reach. NBM and every other blend are left out, as they are everywhere on this page.
The 6-day totals count only models with a forecast for every one of those days, so a model that stops short is not drawn drier than it forecast.
The wettest day is Thu Oct 22, where 6 of 7 models forecast rain in Phoenix — ICON wettest at 33.6 mm, the driest at 0.2 mm.
How much rain, next 6 days
Each model's own total, Tue Oct 20 to Sun Oct 25, 30.5 mm between the wettest and the driest.
- ICON 36.6
- AIFS 31.1
- GEM 23.6
- AIGFS 23.1
- UKMO 19.2
- ECMWF 14.2
- GFS 6.1
| Day | Models | Wet | Range (mm) | Wettest | Rain chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 2 | 0.0 to 1.0 | GFS 1.0 | 14% to 74% 3 models |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 7 | 2.4 to 7.1 | UKMO 7.1 | 59% to 100% 3 models |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 6 | 0.2 to 33.6 | ICON 33.6 | 77% to 96% 3 models |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | AIFS 0.3 | 0% to 18% 3 models |
| Sat Oct 24 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | — | 0% to 6% 3 models |
| Sun Oct 25 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 2% to 5% 3 models |
| Mon Oct 26 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 0% to 5% 3 models |
| Tue Oct 27 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | — | 2% to 10% 3 models |
| Wed Oct 28 | 5 | 1 | 0.0 to 0.6 | GEM 0.6 | 5% to 19% 3 models |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 2 | 0.0 to 19.8 | AIFS 19.8 | 18% to 29% 3 models |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 2 | 0.0 to 16.7 | AIFS 16.7 | 22% to 43% 3 models |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 to 12.5 | AIFS 12.5 | 20% to 26% 3 models |
| Sun Nov 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.0 to 13.4 | AIFS 13.4 | 14% to 26% 3 models |
| Mon Nov 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.0 to 21.7 | AIGFS 21.7 | 13% to 25% 3 models |
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