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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Oct 9?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 30° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 40° against the PHX observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.2°. ICON ran 3° cool.

14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 1.2°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-24 — 26° — — 34° — — 26–34°
14d · 2026-09-25 38° 33° 30° — 36° — — 30–38°
13d · 2026-09-26 38° 34° 38° — 36° — — 34–38°
12d · 2026-09-27 38° 36° 38° — 34° — — 34–38°
11d · 2026-09-28 39° 33° 36° — 38° — — 33–39°
10d · 2026-09-29 38° 34° 38° — 34° — — 34–38°
9d · 2026-09-30 37° 34° 38° 34° 35° — — 34–38°
8d · 2026-10-01 38° 37° 38° 34° 38° — — 34–38°
7d · 2026-10-02 37° 36° 38° 35° 37° — — 35–38°
6d · 2026-10-03 37° 35° 38° 35° 36° 36° 38° 35–38°
5d · 2026-10-04 38° 37° 39° 37° 37° 35° 38° 35–39°
4d · 2026-10-05 39° 37° 40° 36° 37° 36° 38° 36–40°
3d · 2026-10-06 39° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37° 39° 37–39°
2d · 2026-10-07 39° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37° 39° 37–39°
1d · 2026-10-08 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 37° 38° 37–39°
actual 40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.