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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Wed Oct 7?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 35° to 40°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 39° against the PHX observations — clear.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-22 — 36° — — 38° — — 36–38°
14d · 2026-09-23 38° 36° 40° — 35° — — 35–40°
13d · 2026-09-24 38° 28° 37° — 33° — — 28–38°
12d · 2026-09-25 38° 33° 34° — 35° — — 33–38°
11d · 2026-09-26 37° 36° 36° — 37° — — 36–37°
10d · 2026-09-27 39° 37° 37° — 36° — — 36–39°
9d · 2026-09-28 39° 35° 39° 36° 37° — — 35–39°
8d · 2026-09-29 39° 35° 39° 37° 37° — — 35–39°
7d · 2026-09-30 38° 37° 39° 37° 37° — — 37–39°
6d · 2026-10-01 38° 38° 38° 37° 38° 37° 37° 37–38°
5d · 2026-10-02 38° 38° 39° 37° 37° 36° 38° 36–39°
4d · 2026-10-03 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37° 38° 37–38°
3d · 2026-10-04 38° 37° 39° 37° 37° 37° 38° 37–39°
2d · 2026-10-05 38° 37° 39° 37° 37° 37° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-10-06 39° 36° 39° 37° 37° 37° 37° 36–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.