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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Tue Oct 6?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 34° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 37° against the PHX observations — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°.

13 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-21 — 37° — — 31° — — 31–37°
14d · 2026-09-22 39° 38° — — 39° — — 38–39°
13d · 2026-09-23 37° 38° 38° — 34° — — 34–38°
12d · 2026-09-24 38° 30° 40° — 32° — — 30–40°
11d · 2026-09-25 38° 32° 33° — 33° — — 32–38°
10d · 2026-09-26 37° 36° 36° — 36° — — 36–37°
9d · 2026-09-27 37° 37° 36° 36° 34° — — 34–37°
8d · 2026-09-28 37° 35° 37° 35° 35° — — 35–37°
7d · 2026-09-29 37° 35° 37° 37° 36° — — 35–37°
6d · 2026-09-30 37° 36° 36° 36° 36° 33° 35° 33–37°
5d · 2026-10-01 37° 37° 37° 37° 36° 35° 36° 35–37°
4d · 2026-10-02 37° 37° 37° 37° 36° 35° 37° 35–37°
3d · 2026-10-03 38° 36° 37° 37° 36° 35° 36° 35–38°
2d · 2026-10-04 38° 36° 37° 37° 36° 36° 37° 36–38°
1d · 2026-10-05 37° 36° 38° 37° 36° 36° 37° 36–38°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.