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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sat Sep 26?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 32° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 38° against the PHX observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 3° cool.

14 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-11 — 34° — — 37° — — 34–37°
14d · 2026-09-12 32° 35° 39° — 36° — — 32–39°
13d · 2026-09-13 37° 40° 42° — 37° — — 37–42°
12d · 2026-09-14 37° 38° 37° — 36° — — 36–38°
11d · 2026-09-15 37° 38° 41° — 38° — — 37–41°
10d · 2026-09-16 36° 35° 39° — 40° — — 35–40°
9d · 2026-09-17 39° 34° 40° 37° 39° — — 34–40°
8d · 2026-09-18 38° 37° 35° 37° 40° — — 35–40°
7d · 2026-09-19 40° 38° 38° 38° 39° — — 38–40°
6d · 2026-09-20 39° 37° 40° 37° 38° 36° 35° 35–40°
5d · 2026-09-21 39° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37° 37° 37–40°
4d · 2026-09-22 39° 37° 39° 38° 38° 38° 38° 37–39°
3d · 2026-09-23 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 38° 37–38°
2d · 2026-09-24 36° 35° 36° 35° 36° 37° 35° 35–37°
1d · 2026-09-25 37° 35° 37° 36° 36° 36° 35° 35–37°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.