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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Wed Sep 23?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 34° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the PHX observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 4° cool.

14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-08 — 37° — — 38° — — 37–38°
14d · 2026-09-09 34° 38° 36° — 39° — — 34–39°
13d · 2026-09-10 32° 37° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
12d · 2026-09-11 36° 37° 34° — 40° — — 34–40°
11d · 2026-09-12 33° 34° 38° — 38° — — 33–38°
10d · 2026-09-13 34° 39° 37° — 37° — — 34–39°
9d · 2026-09-14 36° 36° 32° 34° 37° — — 32–37°
8d · 2026-09-15 38° 38° 37° 40° 38° — — 37–40°
7d · 2026-09-16 37° 36° 37° 39° 36° — — 36–39°
6d · 2026-09-17 37° 37° 38° 37° 37° 37° 37° 37–38°
5d · 2026-09-18 38° 35° 39° 38° 36° 37° 39° 35–39°
4d · 2026-09-19 38° 35° 39° 38° 35° 37° 38° 35–39°
3d · 2026-09-20 37° 35° 38° 37° 36° 35° 38° 35–38°
2d · 2026-09-21 33° 34° 37° 37° 34° 34° 35° 33–37°
1d · 2026-09-22 34° 34° 37° 36° 34° 36° 37° 34–37°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.