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Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sat Sep 19?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 36° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the PHX observations — clear.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 3° cool.

13 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 39. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-04 — 38° — — 37° — — 37–38°
14d · 2026-09-05 32° 38° — — 40° — — 32–40°
13d · 2026-09-06 36° 39° 39° — 39° — — 36–39°
12d · 2026-09-07 37° 33° 37° — 40° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-09-08 37° 38° 41° — 39° — — 37–41°
10d · 2026-09-09 39° 38° 39° — 38° — — 38–39°
9d · 2026-09-10 38° 40° 39° — 40° — — 38–40°
8d · 2026-09-11 38° 40° 40° 38° 38° — — 38–40°
7d · 2026-09-12 38° 40° 42° 41° 40° — — 38–42°
6d · 2026-09-13 38° 39° 39° 40° 39° 39° — 38–40°
5d · 2026-09-14 37° 37° 39° 37° 38° 39° 39° 37–39°
4d · 2026-09-15 36° 37° 38° 37° 38° 40° 38° 36–40°
3d · 2026-09-16 36° 37° 39° 38° 38° 39° 38° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-17 36° 36° 35° 37° 38° 39° 36° 35–39°
1d · 2026-09-18 38° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37–38°
0d · 2026-09-19 39° 37° 39° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.