Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Tue Aug 25?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
6 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 40° to 46°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 44°. The day verified at 46° against the PHX observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-19 | 42° | 42° | 45° | 43° | 40° | 46° | 45° | 40–46° |
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 44° | 43° | 45° | 43° | 45° | 47° | 44° | 43–47° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 44° | 44° | 45° | 43° | 45° | 45° | 44° | 43–45° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 45° | 43° | 46° | 43° | 45° | 46° | 45° | 43–46° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 44° | 44° | 45° | 42° | 45° | 45° | 44° | 42–45° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 45° | 44° | 44° | 43° | 45° | 45° | 43° | 43–45° |
| actual | 46° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.