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Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Wed Sep 23?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations

14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 25° to 32°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the NEW observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-08 — 28° — — 28° — — 28–28°
14d · 2026-09-09 32° 28° 25° — 32° — — 25–32°
13d · 2026-09-10 27° 30° 25° — 30° — — 25–30°
12d · 2026-09-11 26° 28° 26° — 30° — — 26–30°
11d · 2026-09-12 33° 33° 28° — 31° — — 28–33°
10d · 2026-09-13 28° 32° 30° — 33° — — 28–33°
9d · 2026-09-14 28° 32° 30° 31° 32° — — 28–32°
8d · 2026-09-15 29° 31° 30° 32° 32° — — 29–32°
7d · 2026-09-16 31° 32° 31° 32° 32° — — 31–32°
6d · 2026-09-17 31° 32° 31° 34° 33° 33° 34° 31–34°
5d · 2026-09-18 31° 34° 32° 33° 33° 32° 33° 31–34°
4d · 2026-09-19 31° 34° 31° 33° 34° 33° 35° 31–35°
3d · 2026-09-20 32° 34° 31° 34° 34° 32° 34° 31–34°
2d · 2026-09-21 32° 34° 32° 34° 35° 33° 33° 32–35°
1d · 2026-09-22 31° 33° 33° 34° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.