Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Tue Aug 25?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
4 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 31° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 32° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 32° | 35° | 32° | 31° | 34° | 33° | 37° | 31–37° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 31° | 33° | 32° | 35° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 31–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 32° | 32° | 30° | 29° | 33° | 30° | 33° | 29–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 32° | 33° | 29° | 34° | 34° | 31° | 33° | 29–34° |
| actual | 32° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.