The Spread

Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Fri Jul 31?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 30° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. ICON ran 2° cold.

4 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-07-27 30° 32° 30° 32° 35° 32° 34° 30–35°
3d · 2026-07-28 32° 35° 31° 32° 36° 32° 34° 31–36°
2d · 2026-07-29 32° 34° 33° 33° 36° 31° 35° 31–36°
1d · 2026-07-30 33° 35° 34° 35° 35° 32° 34° 32–35°
0d · 2026-07-31 33° 33° 33° 35° 36° 32° 34° 32–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.