Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Aug 28?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations

4 days out, 7 models put Denver's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 33° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the DEN observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 2° cool.

4 days out the models said 33–34; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.9°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-08-24	34°	33°	34°	34°	33°	33°	34°	33–34°
3d · 2026-08-25	34°	33°	34°	34°	34°	33°	33°	33–34°
2d · 2026-08-26	33°	33°	34°	34°	34°	33°	34°	33–34°
1d · 2026-08-27	34°	33°	34°	34°	34°	34°	33°	33–34°
actual								35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.