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Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Aug 8?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 34° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° cool.

14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-07-25 35° 35° 34° — 39° — — 34–39°
13d · 2026-07-26 25° 38° 31° — 33° — — 25–38°
12d · 2026-07-27 36° 33° 38° — 37° — — 33–38°
11d · 2026-07-28 34° 34° 37° — 41° — — 34–41°
10d · 2026-07-29 36° 29° 34° — 33° — — 29–36°
9d · 2026-07-30 34° 29° 40° 31° 33° — — 29–40°
8d · 2026-07-31 36° 34° 38° 35° 36° — — 34–38°
7d · 2026-08-01 37° 35° 40° 34° 38° — — 34–40°
6d · 2026-08-02 37° 37° 39° 35° 40° 38° 38° 35–40°
5d · 2026-08-03 37° 37° 38° 35° 38° 39° 37° 35–39°
4d · 2026-08-04 37° 37° 38° 36° 39° 37° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-08-05 37° 37° 38° 34° 39° 37° 38° 34–39°
2d · 2026-08-06 37° 37° 38° 35° 39° 37° 37° 35–39°
1d · 2026-08-07 37° 37° 38° 34° 38° 37° 37° 34–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.