The Spread

Was the forecast right for Denver on Mon Aug 3?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 5 models put Denver's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 27° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 4° cold.

9 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-25 27° 34° 33° 29° 33° — — 27–34°
7d · 2026-07-27 28° 36° 41° 37° 37° — — 28–41°
6d · 2026-07-28 27° 34° 35° 34° 38° 30° — 27–38°
5d · 2026-07-29 36° 37° 39° 36° 40° 37° 33° 33–40°
4d · 2026-07-30 36° 37° 39° 36° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-07-31 36° 38° 39° 36° 40° 37° 38° 36–40°
2d · 2026-08-01 36° 35° 38° 34° 39° 38° 38° 34–39°
1d · 2026-08-02 37° 39° 38° 35° 37° 39° 38° 35–39°
0d · 2026-08-03 37° 38° 38° 34° 39° 39° 38° 34–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.