Was the forecast right for Denver on Sun Aug 2?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
8 days out, 5 models put Denver's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 34° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-25 | 34° | 35° | 38° | 36° | 40° | — | — | 34–40° |
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 37° | 37° | 37° | 36° | 41° | 38° | — | 36–41° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 37° | 36° | 39° | 35° | 39° | 36° | 38° | 35–39° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 37° | 36° | 39° | 35° | 38° | 38° | 38° | 35–39° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 37° | 37° | 38° | 35° | 38° | 38° | 38° | 35–38° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 38° | 37° | 39° | 35° | 39° | 39° | 38° | 35–39° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 38° | 38° | 39° | 35° | 39° | 39° | 39° | 35–39° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 38° | 38° | 39° | 35° | 39° | 39° | 38° | 35–39° |
| actual | 39° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.