The Spread Maps Request an invite

Was the forecast right for Denver on Sat Aug 1?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

7 days out, 5 models put Denver's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 33° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 4° cool.

7 days out the models said 33–39; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
7d · 2026-07-25 33° 33° 34° 34° 39° — — 33–39°
6d · 2026-07-26 31° 34° 35° 32° 36° 38° 36° 31–38°
5d · 2026-07-27 33° 34° 31° 32° 39° 33° 36° 31–39°
4d · 2026-07-28 32° 33° 35° 32° 36° 35° 36° 32–36°
3d · 2026-07-29 32° 32° 33° 32° 34° 34° 35° 32–35°
2d · 2026-07-30 33° 32° 34° 32° 34° 34° 35° 32–35°
1d · 2026-07-31 33° 33° 34° 31° 36° 35° 35° 31–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.