Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Jul 31?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

6 days out, 7 models put Denver's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 32° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 32° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° hot.

6 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
6d · 2026-07-25	33°	32°	33°	32°	39°	34°	36°	32–39°
4d · 2026-07-27	33°	32°	31°	34°	38°	37°	33°	31–38°
3d · 2026-07-28	31°	32°	34°	34°	36°	34°	32°	31–36°
2d · 2026-07-29	31°	30°	29°	31°	34°	33°	31°	29–34°
1d · 2026-07-30	30°	29°	30°	30°	33°	32°	33°	29–33°
0d · 2026-07-31	31°	31°	31°	30°	34°	32°	32°	30–34°
actual								32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.