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Was the forecast right for Denver on Fri Jul 31?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

6 days out, 7 models put Denver's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 32° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 32° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.

6 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-07-25 33° 32° 33° 32° 39° 34° 36° 32–39°
5d · 2026-07-26 31° 32° 32° 34° 38° 39° 37° 31–39°
4d · 2026-07-27 33° 32° 34° 34° 37° 36° 36° 32–37°
3d · 2026-07-28 31° 30° 30° 31° 36° 34° 34° 30–36°
2d · 2026-07-29 31° 31° 29° 29° 35° 34° 32° 29–35°
1d · 2026-07-30 31° 30° 30° 31° 33° 32° 33° 30–33°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.