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Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Jul 30?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Denver's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 32° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.

5 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 5°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-07-25 33° 32° 33° 34° 38° 35° 34° 32–38°
4d · 2026-07-26 32° 32° 30° 31° 37° 36° 35° 30–37°
3d · 2026-07-27 32° 32° 32° 33° 35° 35° 33° 32–35°
2d · 2026-07-28 33° 33° 31° 31° 35° 34° 35° 31–35°
1d · 2026-07-29 32° 33° 30° 33° 35° 34° 33° 30–35°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.