Was the forecast right for Denver on Wed Jul 29?

Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Denver's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 30° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 4.3 mm of precipitation — rain.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

4 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-07-25	30°	30°	32°	34°	36°	34°	34°	30–36°
2d · 2026-07-27	30°	30°	27°	28°	36°	33°	31°	27–36°
1d · 2026-07-28	30°	30°	30°	31°	35°	34°	34°	30–35°
0d · 2026-07-29	30°	30°	32°	31°	35°	34°	33°	30–35°
actual								33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.