Was the forecast right for Chicago on Wed Oct 14?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 10° to 26°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 21°. The day verified at 19° against the MDW observations, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 20° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 20–26° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 10° | 12° | 26° | — | 21° | — | — | 10–26° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 15° | 16° | 25° | — | 24° | — | — | 15–25° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 9° | 11° | 21° | — | 22° | — | — | 9–22° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 23° | 16° | 17° | — | 24° | — | — | 16–24° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 25° | 9° | 26° | — | 14° | — | — | 9–26° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 14° | 14° | 25° | 24° | 24° | — | — | 14–25° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 12° | 18° | 20° | 20° | 15° | — | — | 12–20° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 13° | 15° | 13° | 15° | 17° | — | — | 13–17° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 17° | 22° | 16° | 23° | 19° | 17° | 15° | 15–23° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 19° | 17° | 18° | 18° | 16° | 19° | 16° | 16–19° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 20° | 17° | 21° | 18° | 21° | 20° | 21° | 17–21° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 19° | 19° | 19° | 20° | 23° | 21° | 23° | 19–23° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 18° | 23° | 24° | 21° | 21° | 20° | 18–24° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 20° | 18° | 21° | 22° | 21° | 21° | 21° | 18–22° |
| actual | 19° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.