Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sun Oct 4?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 16° to 23°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 23° against the MDW observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 16° | — | — | 22° | — | — | 16–22° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 18° | 22° | 23° | — | 16° | — | — | 16–23° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 21° | 16° | 18° | — | 20° | — | — | 16–21° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 23° | 11° | 24° | — | 19° | — | — | 11–24° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 17° | 17° | 15° | — | 15° | — | — | 15–17° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 18° | 22° | 17° | — | 27° | — | — | 17–27° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 18° | 21° | 20° | 25° | 29° | — | — | 18–29° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 17° | 19° | 17° | 17° | 19° | — | — | 17–19° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 21° | 18° | 16° | 20° | 20° | — | — | 16–21° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 20° | 22° | 21° | 20° | 18° | 20° | 19° | 18–22° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 21° | 21° | 20° | 20° | 21° | 21° | 18° | 18–21° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 22° | 23° | 21° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 21–23° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 22° | 23° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 22° | 22° | 21–23° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 22° | 23° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 22° | 21° | 21–23° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 22° | 23° | 21° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 21° | 21–23° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.