Was the forecast right for Chicago on Sat Sep 19?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 19° to 26°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 22° against the MDW observations, with 25.7 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 18° | — | — | 20° | — | — | 18–20° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 23° | 23° | — | — | 29° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 23° | 20° | 19° | — | 26° | — | — | 19–26° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 24° | 16° | 23° | — | 22° | — | — | 16–24° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 18° | 20° | 19° | — | 20° | — | — | 18–20° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 19° | 27° | 29° | — | 29° | — | — | 19–29° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 20° | 23° | 22° | — | 26° | — | — | 20–26° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 22° | 24° | 20° | 23° | 21° | — | — | 20–24° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 22° | 20° | 23° | 21° | 19° | — | — | 19–23° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 20° | 20° | 28° | 27° | 30° | 32° | — | 20–32° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 21° | 28° | 32° | 32° | 34° | 25° | 29° | 21–34° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 21° | 22° | 28° | 26° | 24° | 27° | 23° | 21–28° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 23° | 27° | 29° | 26° | 30° | 28° | 31° | 23–31° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 22° | 21° | 26° | 21° | 20° | 26° | 25° | 20–26° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 22° | 20° | 28° | 21° | 20° | 25° | 23° | 20–28° |
| 0d · 2026-09-19 | 22° | 21° | 28° | 27° | 22° | 27° | 27° | 21–28° |
| actual | 22° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.