Was the forecast right for Chicago on Fri Sep 11?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
13 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 25° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 27° against the MDW observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 31° | — | — | 25° | — | — | 25–31° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 28° | 31° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 26–31° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 25° | 28° | 32° | — | 27° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 24° | 29° | 16° | — | 17° | — | — | 16–29° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 28° | 32° | 23° | — | 32° | — | — | 23–32° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 32° | 35° | 36° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–36° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 25° | 33° | 29° | — | 28° | — | — | 25–33° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 21° | 34° | 20° | 34° | 26° | — | — | 20–34° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 25° | 27° | 23° | 21° | 21° | — | — | 21–27° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 27° | 27° | 28° | 28° | 25° | 27° | — | 25–28° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 25° | 26° | 26° | 23° | 28° | 24° | 27° | 23–28° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 25° | 26° | 26° | 25° | 30° | 25° | 25° | 25–30° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 25° | 24° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 24–27° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 25° | 25° | 26° | 24° | 28° | 26° | 27° | 24–28° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 26° | 25° | 25° | 29° | 28° | 27° | 27° | 25–29° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 25° | 26° | 26° | 28° | 28° | 27° | 26° | 25–28° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.