Was the forecast right for Berlin on Thu Sep 3?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
5 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 19° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 21°. The day verified at 25° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.8°. UKMO ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 21° | 19° | 24° | 24° | 24° | 23° | 24° | 19–24° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 24° | 21° | 22° | 22° | 24° | 22° | 23° | 21–24° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 21° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 25° | 22° | 22° | 21–25° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 22° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 21° | 20° | 20–23° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 20° | 20° | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 20° | 20–22° |
| actual | 25° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.