The Spread

Was the forecast right for Berlin on Tue Sep 1?

Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations

3 days out, 7 models put Berlin's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 21° to 23°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 24° against the EDDB observations, with 1.3 mm of precipitation — showers.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 21–23; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-29 21° 21° 23° 21° 22° 23° 22° 21–23°
2d · 2026-08-30 22° 21° 24° 23° 23° 24° 22° 21–24°
1d · 2026-08-31 22° 21° 23° 22° 23° 22° 22° 21–23°
0d · 2026-09-01 22° 22° 22° 22° 24° 22° 22° 22–24°
actual 24°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.