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Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Sep 19?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 26° to 28°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the ATL observations, with 19.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 3° cool.

13 days out the models said 26–28; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-04 — 28° — — 27° — — 27–28°
14d · 2026-09-05 33° 26° — — 31° — — 26–33°
13d · 2026-09-06 26° 27° 27° — 28° — — 26–28°
12d · 2026-09-07 26° 28° 30° — 29° — — 26–30°
11d · 2026-09-08 33° 29° 24° — 26° — — 24–33°
10d · 2026-09-09 31° 30° 33° — 36° — — 30–36°
9d · 2026-09-10 32° 22° 26° — 24° — — 22–32°
8d · 2026-09-11 32° 32° 34° 34° 30° — — 30–34°
7d · 2026-09-12 31° 32° 29° 32° 34° — — 29–34°
6d · 2026-09-13 33° 32° 34° 32° 31° 29° — 29–34°
5d · 2026-09-14 33° 32° 33° 32° 32° 34° 30° 30–34°
4d · 2026-09-15 33° 32° 35° 32° 33° 30° 29° 29–35°
3d · 2026-09-16 32° 32° 34° 33° 33° 30° 32° 30–34°
2d · 2026-09-17 32° 34° 34° 34° 35° 33° 33° 32–35°
1d · 2026-09-18 33° 34° 35° 32° 35° 32° 33° 32–35°
0d · 2026-09-19 32° 34° 35° 33° 34° 31° 33° 31–35°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.