The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Tue Sep 15?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 32° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 32° against the ATL observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

13 days out the models said 32–33; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-31 — 32° — — 34° — — 32–34°
14d · 2026-09-01 34° 35° — — 35° — — 34–35°
13d · 2026-09-02 32° 33° 32° — 32° — — 32–33°
12d · 2026-09-03 30° 32° 27° — 37° — — 27–37°
11d · 2026-09-04 30° 25° 39° — 32° — — 25–39°
10d · 2026-09-05 31° 30° 31° — 34° — — 30–34°
9d · 2026-09-06 32° 30° 36° — 32° — — 30–36°
8d · 2026-09-07 31° 29° 32° 31° 37° — — 29–37°
7d · 2026-09-08 30° 28° 34° 26° 36° — — 26–36°
6d · 2026-09-09 29° 29° 31° 30° 33° 32° — 29–33°
5d · 2026-09-10 31° 30° 33° 32° 35° 32° 32° 30–35°
4d · 2026-09-11 32° 31° 32° 31° 34° 32° 31° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-12 32° 30° 32° 32° 31° 33° 31° 30–33°
2d · 2026-09-13 32° 31° 32° 30° 34° 33° 30° 30–34°
1d · 2026-09-14 32° 32° 32° 33° 34° 32° 32° 32–34°
0d · 2026-09-15 32° 33° 33° 33° 34° 32° 31° 31–34°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.