The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Mon Sep 14?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 34° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the ATL observations — partly cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.

13 days out the models said 34–37; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-30 — 25° — — 33° — — 25–33°
14d · 2026-08-31 30° 32° — — 30° — — 30–32°
13d · 2026-09-01 34° 34° 34° — 37° — — 34–37°
12d · 2026-09-02 32° 33° 30° — 32° — — 30–33°
11d · 2026-09-03 30° 31° 26° — 37° — — 26–37°
10d · 2026-09-04 30° 25° 37° — 32° — — 25–37°
9d · 2026-09-05 32° 28° 31° — 35° — — 28–35°
8d · 2026-09-06 33° 29° 34° 33° 35° — — 29–35°
7d · 2026-09-07 32° 30° 31° 30° 34° — — 30–34°
6d · 2026-09-08 33° 32° 33° 28° 34° 34° — 28–34°
5d · 2026-09-09 33° 31° 31° 30° 34° 32° 32° 30–34°
4d · 2026-09-10 33° 32° 33° 33° 35° 33° 33° 32–35°
3d · 2026-09-11 34° 32° 33° 31° 36° 34° 33° 31–36°
2d · 2026-09-12 33° 32° 34° 33° 36° 33° 33° 32–36°
1d · 2026-09-13 34° 33° 34° 32° 36° 34° 33° 32–36°
0d · 2026-09-14 33° 34° 34° 33° 36° 34° 33° 33–36°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.