The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Tue Sep 8?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 30° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the ATL observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-24 30° 28° 28–30°
14d · 2026-08-25 32° 25° 36° 25–36°
13d · 2026-08-26 34° 33° 30° 37° 30–37°
12d · 2026-08-27 28° 34° 37° 30° 28–37°
11d · 2026-08-28 29° 34° 34° 34° 29–34°
10d · 2026-08-29 28° 36° 34° 34° 28–36°
9d · 2026-08-30 28° 29° 28° 30° 28–30°
8d · 2026-08-31 28° 26° 28° 29° 29° 26–29°
7d · 2026-09-01 30° 31° 31° 25° 34° 25–34°
6d · 2026-09-02 30° 30° 29° 29° 34° 32° 29–34°
5d · 2026-09-03 30° 30° 32° 27° 33° 31° 30° 27–33°
4d · 2026-09-04 29° 29° 30° 26° 33° 31° 32° 26–33°
3d · 2026-09-05 29° 29° 31° 26° 32° 31° 30° 26–32°
2d · 2026-09-06 28° 30° 30° 29° 32° 30° 31° 28–32°
1d · 2026-09-07 30° 29° 32° 29° 32° 31° 31° 29–32°
0d · 2026-09-08 30° 31° 31° 29° 31° 31° 31° 29–31°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.